For the assessment of spatial distribution (fields) of equilibrium line altitude (ELA) in high mountains, snow accumulation, solid precipitation and run-off the World Atlas of Snow and Ice Resources (1997) introduced a new, “glacier-system” approach. As the next step of this method development, the ELA and climatic snow line (low limit of “hionosphere”) fields evolution study for present and future climate change is proposed. The method gives the possibility also to estimate the evolution of precipitation and run- off in high mountains. Now the regions under estimation are North-East Siberia including Kamchatka peninsula, Polar Ural and Franz-Joseph Land (Western Arctic). Other glacier systems are planned to be studied in this aspect as well. The North-Eastern Siberia relevant project has been submitted to the IPY program.
Contact persons: Alexander N.Krenke (
) and Maria D. Ananicheva (
)
2
The evolution of snow cover characteristics over the Northern Eurasia under present climate change is studied; as a result, we created the homogeneous data base for the period 1966 -2000. Despite of warming, the snow depth and snow water equivalent increase due to more intensive cyclonic activity and winter precipitation in most of regions excluding south and west of East-European plain and part of Turan plain. We compared changes in snow cover in the mountains with that of over plains. The method of estimation of the limit of snowiness change (change of trend sign) via temperature is elaborated. The relationship between snow cover and circulation patterns regime has been studied using various circulation indices. Method of the principal components was used to allocate the regions with similar snow features variations. The next step will be a construction of the future snow cover scenarios depending on climate scenarios, which is based on its relation to winter monthly precipitation and air temperature in weather- extreme years.
Contact persons: Alexander N.Krenke (
), V.Pazuvaev (
), and L.Kitaev (
)
3
Data set of snow stratigraphy and long-term meteorological time series in various regions of Northern Eurasia has been created. Parameterization scheme of the snow cover stratigraphy classes for climate and hydrological models has been developed and tested against the observed data. This activity is accomplished within INTAS project No 03-515296.
Contact person: Adrey B. Shmakin (
)
4
Shallow ice core, 21.41 m depth, has been recovered on the Western firn plateau of Mt. Elbrus (5150 m a.s.l.), Caucasus in 2003. Firn density has been measured at the drilling site and ranged from 210 kg/m3 at the upper part of ice core to 680 kg/m3 at 21.4 m. Temperatures were measured in the borehole and changed from -11.5°C near surface to - 17°C at 10 m. Distinct seasonal fluctuations of stable isotope composition has been defined in ice core. Minimum values of the d18O and dD were -28‰ and -206‰. High correlation between d18O and dD has been revealed and the meteoric water equation (dD = 8,0071 d18O + 15,173) has been obtained. Detailed stratigraphic record indicates absence of surface melting and ice layers in firn pack. Radio-echo sounding measurements in 2003 and 2004 show that ice depth ranged from 70 m to 240.8 m. This record indicates that Western firn plateau of Mt. Elbrus is the best site for ice-core studies in Caucasus.
Contact person: Stanislav Kutuzov (
)
5
The retreat of the terminus of glaciers and loss of glacier areas from their maximum extend during the "Little Ice Age" maximum (LIA) (XVIIth-XIXth centuries) have been estimated using aerial photographs (from 1956 to 1987) and the latest satellite images (from 2001 to 2004) in the central Tien Shan mountains (Kyrgyz Republic). In order to increase the accuracy in the identification of the moraines at the satellite and aerial images, all kinds of published information about the front positions of glaciers in the end of XIX century was used. The glaciers under investigation are located on Teskey Alatau, Suek and Dzhetim-bel. There is a great diversity of types, exposure, and size of glaciers in the area. On average, the glaciers in these areas have retreated by 900-600 m since the LIA maximum. Thus in the second part of XXth century, glaciers area has changed by about 25-30% comparing with 5-8% between 1880 and 1970s.
Present warming is also the reason of structural changes of glaciers in addition to retreat of glaciers' terminus. Five shallow ice cores have been recovered from the summit of the Gregoriev Ice Cap (41.98 °N; 77.92°E; 4609 m a.s.l.) in Tien Shan, Central Asia, between 1990 and 2003. These ice cores have been dated on the base of set of reference horizons and annual microparticle concentrations. The detailed stratigraphic records for the top sections of the 1990 and 2001 cores indicate that 3.8 m of snow/firn accumulated in the 11 years. The mean annual net accumulation derived from this comparison is 0.35 m in ice equivalent (i.e.) (260 mm w.e.) for the period from 1990 to 2001. The net accumulation from 1963 to 1990 was 0.42 m i.e. (320 mm w.e.). Moreover decrease of firn pack depth from 9 to 6 m has been observed at 4450 m site between 1962 and 2003. Over the same period infiltration ice concentration has been increased as a result of more intensive melt water percolation. Considerable enrichment in stable isotope composition for the top section of the 1990 and 2003 ice cores has been measured. Considerable warming has been measured in boreholes drilled at 4450 m in 1962 and 2003. The temperature rise is ~2.5°C at the depth 10 m and 0.5°C at 30 m.
Unprecedented wastage and structural changes of glaciers in the Tien Shan from the mid- 1970s till the beginning of the XXI century most likely resulted from the increase of summer air temperature and decrease of summer precipitation witch have been recorded at the meteorological stations (the Tien-Shan station etc.). The change in atmospheric pressure over the central North Atlantic Ocean during the mid-1970s can be one of the possible reasons for these processes. This study is supported by ISTC grant nr. 2947
Contact person: Stanislav Kutuzov (
)
6
Snow cover exerts direct influence upon the climate dynamics. Therefore ability for assess its current global state and water equivalent in seasonal and long-term range has a great importance in understanding of climate change and development of forecast models. Moreover, the assessment of snow cover water equivalent (SWE) in scale of a river basin is required for planning and management of water resources including the forecast and prevention of hazardous hydrological phenomena during melting period. Because of the scarcity of ground-based data on snow cover state, specifically for the Russian subpolar regions, new microwave remote sensing data might be of great importance for this purpose. Solution of the problem is now on stage of development of regression or empirical models with limited spatial applicability. It is suggested that available algorithms allow determining SWE with 20-25% accuracy. Meanwhile preliminary studies based on AMSR-E and SSM/I data for winter periods of 2003-2005 on test sites in European part of Russia, the Polar Urals and Siberia indicate the large (by 2-4 times) difference in ground snow survey data and SWE data retrieved from space remote sensing observations. Thus one universal algorithm does not provide the desired accuracy. Therefore the additional studies and regional approach in interpretation of remote sensing data are required. One of the possible solutions is the zoning and adaptation of available regressions or searching of new ones that will be valid for the uniform areal climatic or landscape conditions. Implementation of this approach is the major target of the project. Additional aim is the calibration of the Russian radiometer which is planned to launch on “Canopus-Vulkan” satellite in 2007. Considerable contribution in the problem solving might be benefit from the synchronous measurements of snow cover parameters specially designed in the frame of IPY- 2007.
Contact person: Gennady Nosenko (
)
7
The past century is marked by the global climate warming that set mankind thinking about the environment state and viable interconnections. Glaciers being dynamically unstable systems reveal rapid reaction on climate change manifested in the mass balance processes that is the snow accumulation on glaciers, the type of snow transformation to ice, the melt water and impurities run-off transformation. The glacier melting that saturates the soft till deposits with water leads to the high instability of moraine complexes. Glacier recession implies the landscape changes in the glacial zone, origin of new lakes and activation of natural disaster processes, catastrophic mudflows, ice avalanches, outburst floods, and etc. The presence of glaciers in itself threats to human life, economic activity and growing infrastructure. Economical and recreational human activity in mountain regions requires relevant information on snow and ice objects. Absence or inadequacy of such information results in financial and human losses. One of the major aims of the project is to study the current trends in development of mountain glaciation of Northern Eurasia in conditions of global climate warming; definition of the role of local environment change, specifically in the origin of natural disastrous glacial processes. The unbiased assessment of current and future development of glaciers requires effective system of monitoring including ground-truth and aerospace studies. Decrease of instrumental series of ground observations and increase of remote sensing methods input brings up the actual problem of different information type management to create the mechanism of simultaneous analysis and assessment of glacier extent as a part of glacier monitoring system. This project is targeted on this problem.
Contact person: Tatiana Khromova (
)
8
All available data indicate on the negative trends in development of glaciers and ice caps in polar regions during the last decades. These changes are manifested in:
reduction of glacier length, area and ice surface elevation;
long-term negative glacier mass balance records;
shift of equilibrium line altitude (ELA) and ice facies zones;
change of hydro-thermal state and internal structure of polythermal glaciers;
temperature changes in the surficial active layer;
instability of glacier behavior such as surge activity and iceberg outbursts;
trends in shallow and deep ice cores records.
Nevertheless these glaciological indicators of climate change derived from conventional observations are often scarce or in some areas completely lacking; hence IPY provides unique opportunity to combine the extended field observations with a variety of remote sensing data and to reveal the comprehensive bipolar picture of the current state of glaciers as the indicator of climate change and the benchmark for comparison with past and future state, interpretation of most sensitive areas, and modelling. Primary lines of investigations are:
State and dynamics of polar glaciers and ice caps
Surficial and internal properties of polar glaciers and ice cap
Deep ice-core drilling of polar glaciers and ice caps
Iceberg calving of polar glaciers and ice caps
For each selected glacier or ice cap the following parameters will be measured in field and/or remotely:
surface mass balance
surface velocities (3-dimensional), preferably including seasonal cycle
bed topography
surface topography (with high accuracy)
surface albedo at the end of the ablation season ocalving rates
water pressure in boreholestemperature profiles in the ice (for polythermal glaciers)
In addition, the historical and proxy information on glacier length/area will be combined with the new maps and images to reconstruct glacier evolution from the Little Ice Age to the present.Methods of studies are:
Ground mass-balance and hydrological studies on glaciers using standard approaches and snow radar transects and shallow drilling o Glacier surface elevation and surface velocity measurements (ground-based, aerial and satellite surveys)
Interpretation and analysis of radar and passive images in different bands for glacier geometry, velocity, dynamics and ice-facies studies
Radio echo-sounding for internal structure and hydrothermal state studies o Deep ice core drilling, bore hole and ice core studies
Studies of glacial deposits and landforms
Contact person: Andrey Glazovsky (
)
9
The goal of the project is to develop a remote sensing database of Antarctic Ice Sheet marginal zone against a background of climate change as a base of GIS to model this unique natural object, its reaction on climatic changes and a contribution to sea level rise. The topicality of the project consists in the creation of the united data base for remote sensing data of all types classified by wave bands, density of information and main morphological regions of Antarctic Ice Sheet marginal zone together with results of direct instrumental geodetic and glaciological studies and meteo data of coastal and island stations. It allows to extend time frames of information for Antarctic Ice Sheet marginal zone change estimation and to correlate the glacier and climate dynamics. During the project the structure and content of the data base has been developed; an inventory of information of different types has been done; an optimization of data input technology has been carried out and the process of information input into data base has been organized; algorithms of images of visible range and maps processing for studies of Antarctic Ice Sheet marginal zone dynamic have been developed; the basis cartographic database has been developed; several sources of spatial information have been analyzed, methods of incorporation these data sources into database have been developed and realized. All this information exists now in database as a set of ARCGIS coverages in vector and raster formats. Such a way of data arrangement allows to analyze any set of coverages at the same time and also allows to put new information into data base on-the- fly and plan field studies. The database of ground base, remote sensing and meteo information for ice drainage basins II, III, IV, V and VI has been formed. These data were analyzed together with information on ice movement, sheet marginal zone dynamic and accumulation. It was found out that the mass balance of these basins was positive for all period of instrumental observations.
