Error
  • JUser: :_load: Unable to load user with ID: 132

logo image for top of page



a core project of
2018WCRPspon col July2018 01 1

USNAS-seaice-predictions

Description

Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice.

Understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions is important to a growing number of stakeholders, including local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community. However, gaps in understanding the interactions between Arctic sea ice, oceans, and the atmosphere, along with an increasing rate of change in the nature and quantity of sea ice, is hampering accurate predictions. Although modeling has steadily improved, projections by every major modeling group failed to predict the record breaking drop in summer sea ice extent in September 2012.

Establishing sustained communication between the user, modeling, and observation communities could help reveal gaps in understanding, help balance the needs and expectations of different stakeholders, and ensure that resources are allocated to address the most pressing sea ice data needs. Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies explores these topics.

ARoyer- Improvements in snow monitoring using a coupled snow evolution – microwave emission model
(Media / ARoyer- Improvements in snow monitoring using a coupled snow evolution – microwave emission model)
To accurately monitor and predict snowpack properties, including snow water equivalent (SWE), over remote Northern regions remains challenging when using land surface schemes (LSS) of climate models as well as more sophisticated thermodynamic multilayered snow models (TMSM) without any...
The Cryosphere Grand Challenge document
(Media / The Cryosphere Grand Challenge document)
An overarching mandate of the WCRP is to improve our understanding of the climate system and our ability to make quantitative predictions and projections of future climate. To fulfill this mandate, over the next 5-7 years, the WCRP should actively promote targeted research activities aimed at...
VKattsov- Cryosphere In a Changing Climate- A Grand Challenge Of Climate Science
(Media / VKattsov- Cryosphere In a Changing Climate- A Grand Challenge Of Climate Science)
A Grand Challenge for WCRP has been defined as something highly specific and focused, and identifying specific barriers preventing progress in a critical area of climate science that can be addressed on a 5 – 10 year timescale. Following these criteria for a Grand Challenge (GC) accepted by WCRP,...

View all

Back to Top