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a core project of
2018WCRPspon col July2018 01 1

TJung- The WWRP Polar Prediction Project


The WWRP Polar Prediction Project (PPP) is an IPY legacy activity that aims to promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal. It represents the short-term component of the Global Integrated Polar Prediction System. A detailed Implementation Plan has been finalized and published in January 2013 and is available from WWRP.

PPP deals with classical forecast related issues such as observations, models, data assimilation and ensemble prediction. The focus will be on issues specific to the polar regions such as the prediction of sea ice. Furthermore, research will explore fundamental limits of polar predictability, diagnose the origin of forecast errors and determine linkages between polar and non-polar regions. Finally, science stakeholder interactions will be studied and the field of polar forecast verification will be advanced.

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), which is tentatively scheduled to take place in 2017-2018 is one of the key elements of PPP. YOPP represent an intensive observational and modelling period to advance polar prediction capabilities. It is augmented by research into forecast-stakeholder interaction, verification and an educational component which will be jointly implemented with APECS. The involvement of other initiatives will be crucial and to this end a YOPP planning workshop will be held on 27-28 June 2013 at ECMWF.

Close collaboration of PPP with other WCRP activities will be crucial, especially PCPI, WGSIP and WGNE in order to joint implement all elements of GIPPS. To this end the establishment of an International Coordination Office (ICO) has been proposed, and an offer has been received from the AWI to host such an office. Furthermore, possible topics of future collaboration have been identified, namely coupled reanalyses, model development and seasonal prediction. It is envisaged to organize joint WWRP-WCRP workshops on these issues.

Presented by Thomas Jung, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research, at the 9th CliC Scientific Steering Group meeting in Potsdam, Germany 2013.

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