What is PCPI?

The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) is an initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), whose goal is to improve the understanding of the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate. The PCPI has a focus on polar regions and their role in the global climate system, and aims to improve predictability of the climate system on all time scales by improving our understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms and their representation in climate models.

The PCPI will accomplish this task by co-ordinating the efforts of the international science community, bringing together the different elements of the WCRP, and working closely with other international agencies such as the World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project (WWRP - PPP). The focus here is not on prediction of the climate system, but instead on finding elements of the climate system that contribute to predictability, and how these processes may be improved in models.

The PCPI complements existing efforts by bringing together expertise on the modelling aspects of the climate. It is an initiative of the WCRP under the the Grand Challenge "Cryosphere in a Changing Climate".

Co-leads: Cecilia Bitz (U Washington, USA; link to CliC) and Marilyn Raphael (UCLA, USA; link to SPARC)

The PCPI is supported by the Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) and Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Project (SPARC), two core projects of the WCRP.

News and Updates from PCPI

Updates on the PCPI and other relevant news. If you have something to share, contact CliC.

Report Available: 2015 PCPI Theme Leaders Meeting Report

-PCPI is a WCRP initiative - CliC provided in-kind support for this meeting

thumbnailpcpileads2015The 2015 PCPI Theme Leaders Meeting Report is available here.

The theme Leaders and Chairs of the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) met 9-11 September 2015, at the University of Reading in the UK. They discussed PCPI activities that have taken place since their previously meeting in April 2014. They heard about numerous journal articles (both published and in preparation) that arose from PCPI activities, two successful workshops, and several sessions at major Conferences (AGU, EGU, IUGG). They also brainstormed about future activities and ways that PCPI can contribute to joint activities with other international groups, such as the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and CliC. Four attendees involved in organizing the joint WWRP/WCRP/Bolin Centre School on Polar Prediction sought input about the agenda and design of lab activities. The PCPI Leaders and Chairs discussed the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and in particular they realized that they could help encourage measurement campaigns already planned (especially those in the Antarctic) to contribute to YOPP. They explored ways that PCPI could expand their network of scientists, especially by involving early career scientists in their leadership team and in activities. They would like to create PCPI fellows, modeled after the CliC fellows.

[PCPI Website]
[2015 PCPI Theme Leaders Meeting Webpage]
[2015 PCPI Theme Leaders Meeting Report]

 

Summary: PCPI Leads Meeting in Reading

-Contributed by Cecilia Bitz and Marylin Raphael

pcpibanner 2015The theme Leaders and Chairs of the Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) met 9-11 September 2015, at the University of Reading in the UK. They discussed PCPI activities that have taken place since their previously meeting in April 2014. They heard about numerous journal articles (both published and in preparation) that arose from PCPI activities, two successful workshops, and several sessions at major Conferences (AGU, EGU, IUGG). They also brainstormed about future activities and ways that PCPI can contribute to joint activities with other international groups, such as the Polar Prediction Project (PPP) and CliC. Four attendees involved in organizing the joint WWRP/WCRP/Bolin Centre School on Polar Prediction sought input about the agenda and design of lab activities. The PCPI Leaders and Chairs discussed the Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP), and in particular they realized that they could help encourage measurement campaigns already planned (especially those in the Antarctic) to contribute to YOPP. They explored ways that PCPI could expand their network of scientists, especially by involving early career scientists in their leadership team and in activities. They would like to create PCPI fellows, modeled after the CliC fellows.

EGU Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction: Call for Abstracts

CL3.4/AS1.4/CR6.5/OS1.9
Polar Climate Predictability and Prediction (co-organized)

Convener: Neven-Stjepan Fuckar
Co-Conveners: Cecilia Bitz, Virginie Guemas, Ed Hawkins, Matthieu Chevallier, Torben Koenigk, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Rym Msadek

The Arctic sea ice cover and many other elements of the cryosphere are experiencing significant changes over the modern observational era. The polar climate is crucial for the Earth’s energy and water budget, and its variability and change have direct socio-economic impacts. However, most of climate models are not yet in position to provide us with accurate predictions of polar climate. We welcome presentations advancing understanding of the mechanisms that control polar climate variability on sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescales and climate change. We encourage submissions that examine sources of polar climate predictability in a hierarchy of models, and link polar processes and predictions with mid- and low-latitude climate. We look forward to studies using remote sensing data, field observations, proxy data, theory and numerical models encompassing climate projections, reanalyses and forecast systems. This session aims to further connection between the atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric research and operational communities.

Abstract Submission: http://meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU2015/session/18184
Deadline for submission: 7 January 2015, 1300 CET

PCPI AGU 2014 Fall Meeting Session

Polar Climate: Processes and Predictability
Session ID#: 2392

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 10:20 AM - 12:20 PM, MW, 3005, Oral Presentations

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 01:40 PM - 06:00 PM, MW, Poster Hall

Few climate models have accurately predicted recent changes in polar climate and, as a result, projections of seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability remain uncertain. We welcome presentations that examine the processes that govern seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability, identify sources of polar climate predictability and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction. Studies may address these topics using remote sensing, field-based observations,
proxy data, reanalyses, numerical modeling and theory. Assessing model errors related to polar predictability and evaluating renalyses are also important to advance this field. Finally, we welcome studies that link polar climate predictability to extra-polar phenomena. This session seeks to connect the community of atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric scientists working on topics relevant to the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program.

Primary Convener:
Cecilia M Bitz, Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Co-conveners:
Sarah T Gille, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, United States
Marilyn N Raphael, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom