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What is PCPI?

The Polar Climate Predictability Initiative (PCPI) is an initiative of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), whose goal is to improve the understanding of the predictability of climate and the effect of human activities on climate. The PCPI has a focus on polar regions and their role in the global climate system, and aims to improve predictability of the climate system on all time scales by improving our understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms and their representation in climate models.

The PCPI will accomplish this task by co-ordinating the efforts of the international science community, bringing together the different elements of the WCRP, and working closely with other international agencies such as the World Weather Research Programme's Polar Prediction Project (WWRP - PPP). The focus here is not on prediction of the climate system, but instead on finding elements of the climate system that contribute to predictability, and how these processes may be improved in models.

The PCPI complements existing efforts by bringing together expertise on the modelling aspects of the climate. It is an initiative of the WCRP under the the Grand Challenge "Cryosphere in a Changing Climate".

Co-leads: Julie Jones (University of Sheffield, UK; link to CliC) and Marilyn Raphael (UCLA, USA; link to SPARC)

The PCPI is supported by the Climate and Cryosphere Project (CliC) and Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate Project (SPARC), two core projects of the WCRP.

PCPI AGU 2014 Fall Meeting Session

Polar Climate: Processes and Predictability
Session ID#: 2392

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 10:20 AM - 12:20 PM, MW, 3005, Oral Presentations

Thursday, 18 December 2014: 01:40 PM - 06:00 PM, MW, Poster Hall

Few climate models have accurately predicted recent changes in polar climate and, as a result, projections of seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability remain uncertain. We welcome presentations that examine the processes that govern seasonal to multidecadal polar climate variability, identify sources of polar climate predictability and characterize uncertainty in polar climate prediction. Studies may address these topics using remote sensing, field-based observations,
proxy data, reanalyses, numerical modeling and theory. Assessing model errors related to polar predictability and evaluating renalyses are also important to advance this field. Finally, we welcome studies that link polar climate predictability to extra-polar phenomena. This session seeks to connect the community of atmospheric, oceanic, and cryospheric scientists working on topics relevant to the new Polar Climate Predictability Initiative of the World Climate Research Program.

Primary Convener:
Cecilia M Bitz, Univ of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States

Sarah T Gille, UCSD, La Jolla, CA, United States
Marilyn N Raphael, UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Ed Hawkins, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom