ISMIP6-Projections-Greenland

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Overview

This page describes the experimental protocol for the ISMIP6 projections that target the upcoming IPCC AR6 assessment. Due to the delay in CMIP6 climate simulations, the initial set of ISMIP6 simulations are based on CMIP5 projections. As CMIP6 model output become available, ISMIP6 will include simulations based on these models.

The experimental framework was revised in September 2018 during an ISMIP6 workshop held in Sassenheim (NL). The protocol, summarized in the figure below, allows for:

• Sampling CMIP scenarios: main focus is on the high emission RCP8.5, but ice sheet evolution in response to low emission RCP2.6 is also investigated.

• Sampling CMIP models: 6 AOGCMs have been selected from the CMIP5 model ensemble. The AOGCMs were identified based on present day conditions and range in projections.

• Sampling ice sheet model uncertainty: "standard" and "open" experiments. The "standard" experiments are based on parameterizations developed by the ocean and atmospheric focus groups, while "open" experiments utilize the parameterizations already in use by respective ice sheet models.

• Sampling forcing uncertainty: the standard experiments include "high", "mid" and "low" parameters.

• Experiment ranking: This experimental framework results in 12 to 72 experiments, and a control run. Not every ice sheet model will be able to carry out the full set of experiments. The experiments are therefore ranked, groups are encouraged to work shown the list and complete as many experiments as possible. This approach is based on Shannon et al. (2013): it ensures that all groups do a subset of identical experiments, while it also allows faster models to explore the experiment space more fully.

TO DO: ADD FIGURE

Initial state and experiment duration

To facilitate analysis of the sea level projections resulting from the ISMIP6 suite of ice sheet model simulations, ISMIP6 uses January 1995 to December 2014 as reference period. The experiments start on January 2015 and end in December 2100. The cut off date is constrained by the availability of forcing.

Groups can reuse their initMIP initial state, or start from a new initial state. For models initializing from spinup methods, it is suggested that FINISH.

Control Run

The control run is needed to evaluate model drift. As in the initMIP setup, the control run is obtained by running the model forward without any anomaly forcing, such that whatever surface mass balance (SMB) was used in the initialization technique would continue unchanged.

Prescribed SMB anomaly

The SMB anomaly can be obtained via the ISMIP6 ftp server (email ismip6@gmail.com to obtain the login information). Modeling groups should use the 1km version to conservatively interpolate to their model native grid (see Appendix 1, below). Files of lower resolution (5km, 10km, and 20km) are provided for groups using the output grid as “native grid”. Note that the output grid is slightly different than that used in initMIP-Greenland, which had been set to Bamber et al. (2001) projection. The output grid for the Greenland ice sheet is now BLABLA, because it is the projection used by observational datasets that are key input for ice sheet models using data assimilation to obtain their initial states.

The SMB anomalies have been prepared by Xavier Fettweis with the MAR regional climate model. This step is necessary in order to capture narrow regions at the periphery of the Greenland ice sheet with large SMB gradients, which are not captured by CMIP5 AOGCMs.


For 2b, the amplitude of the SMB anomaly is to be implemented as a time dependent function, which increases step-wise every full year (it is therefore independent of the time step in the model):


SMB(t) = SMB_initialization + SMB_anomaly * (floor (t) / 40); for 0 < t < 40 in years

SMB(t) = SMB_initialization + SMB_anomaly * 1.0; for t > 40 years


where SMB_anomaly is the anomaly provided by ISMIP6 and SMB_initialization is the model specific SMB used for the initialization. The units of SMB_anomaly are (meter ice equivalent/year) with an assumed density of 910 kg/m^3 and 31556926 s/yr.


Requirements for the standard experiments

• Participants can and are encouraged to contribute with different models and/or initialisation methods

• Models have to be able to prescribe a given SMB anomaly

• Adjustment of SMB due to geometric changes in forward experiments is encouraged.

• Bedrock adjustment in forward experiment is allowed.

• The choice of model input data is unconstrained to allow participants the use of their preferred model setup without modification. Modelers without preferred data set choice can have a look at the ISMIP6 Datasets page for possible options.

• To allow for analysis, any modeling choice needs to be well documented. Please follow the guidance for model output described in XXXX


References

Goelzer, H., Nowicki, S., Edwards, T., Beckley, M., Abe-Ouchi, A., Aschwanden, A., Calov, R., Gagliardini, O., Gillet-Chaulet, F., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J., Greve, R., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Kennedy, J. H., Larour, E., Lipscomb, W. H., Le clec'h, S., Lee, V., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Payne, A. J., Rodehacke, C., Rückamp, M., Saito, F., Schlegel, N., Seroussi, H., Shepherd, A., Sun, S., van de Wal, R., and Ziemen, F. A. (2018). Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison, The Cryosphere, 12, 1433-1460, doi:10.5194/tc-12-1433-2018.